Lesson For Libertarian Candidates

In the previous post, I have shown some numbers for Brad Klopfenstein's campaign. Remembering that Brad took 262 votes, or 5.38%, take a look at the totals for Precinct 11-1:

CITY-COUNTY COUNCIL DISTRICT 15

Votes / Vote%
6A PHILLIP SCHOFFSTALL (REP) 58 / 27.49%
6B P. MUUMBA ABDUALLAH (DEM) 83 / 39.34%
6C BRAD KLOPFENSTEIN (LIB) 70 / 33.18%

70 votes is 26% of Brad's 262 total votes. What's the deal? Is this the most Libertarian precinct in Marion County? Heh.

STRAIGHT PARTY

Votes / Vote%
REPUBLICAN PARTY (REP) 35 / 38.46%
DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DEM) 55 / 60.44%
LIBERTARIAN PARTY (LIB) 1 / 1.10%

Only one stinkin' straight party vote for the LP. So what gives?

Precinct 11-1 is Brad's home precinct. Brad got out and went door-to-door here more than anywhere else. He is well-known by his neighbors as President of his Homeowners Association. He approached his neighbor-voters with a simple message: "I am your neighbor". This message works and needs to be employed in the future by ALL LP candidates, even lineholders. This is the low-hanging fruit!

Consider the math: Brad took 70 votes in his precinct. Let's assume instead that he was a lineholder at home. If he was, it's fair to assume that he would have taken 5% of the 201 votes cast in this race in this precinct rather than the 38.46% he got. He would have gotten 10.5 votes. We'll be generous and round up to 11. That means that he has 59 less votes overall, leaving him 203 votes. His percentage of the vote plunges from 5.38% to 4.16%. In a smaller district, the home precinct matters much more due to being a greater percentage of the whole race.