Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Predictable World of Baseball

I am not watching the World Series. There is not a shred of interest. Oh? Did the Yankees make it? Now, who woulda thunk it? Big surprise. The Phillies? Knock me over with a feather.

It's hard enough being a sports fan in a country where most of the parks are built on the backs of taxpayers, where millionaires could have built them without being welfare queens. But baseball is a special kind of suck.

It's hard to miss how not competitive Major League Baseball is. Every year, the Red Sox and Yankees are going to compete in the American League. Every Year, the Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, Braves and Phillies are going to compete in the National League. Mainly, these are the teams willing to spend money on talent.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had 17 straight losing seasons. The Kansas City Royals routinely see their best players get to the end of their contracts, and leave via free agency.

Don't get me wrong- I don't bemoan the players their ability to sign for the highest bidder. The players are the product, after all.

What I don't care for is the fact that most teams will make a profit without even trying to compete for the top-level talent reserved for teams in Boston, New York, or Philadelphia. Why is that? Socialism.

No kidding. If you want to see how the rich stay rich and the poor stay poor in a socialistic microcosm, look at Major League Baseball, which has a revenue sharing program. Michael Lewis, assistant professor of marketing at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis, said this in a University article:
"Even though revenue sharing was intended to create incentives for ball clubs to build their teams and build their fan base, it's ended up having the opposite effect," Lewis said. "For small markets, like Kansas City or Tampa Bay, the club fares better in terms of how much revenue it collects, when their team doesn't win and the stadium isn't full."

and
"The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have been notorious for under-investing in their team," Lewis said. "In 2006, they collected $33 million in revenue-share payments and they only filled about 37 percent of the seats in ballpark. Clearly this is a team that has decided to grow the bottom line through revenue-sharing payments rather than grow the fan base.

True, the Rays reached the World Series in 2008, losing to the Phillies, but that was an anomoly. This year? They finished just 6 games over .500. They'll tread similar waters for the next 20 years.

So, there isn't any tension this year. It's maddening besides. I'm a Cleveland Indians fan who gets to see CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, both Cy Young winners for the Tribe in the past two seasons, now start in Game One of the World Series, for the Yanks and Phils respectively. The Indians just aren't willing to compete at the highest level. They dumped this phenomenal pitching talent for prospects, who they will in turn dump when they become stars themselves.

Why would anyone get emotionally involved with the Cleveland Indians? Or, any other team not in New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Boston, St. Louis, or Los Angeles?

I suppose if I were a Yankees or Phillies fan, this would be a lot of fun to watch. I'm not, so I won't. I get to look at enough crony socialism in the world of politics such that I hardly need it in my entertainment.

4 comments:

Todd S. said...

Here's another reason not to be an MLB fan:

http://reason.com/blog/2009/10/28/wait-jj-putz-supports-card-che

I like baseball, and while there's certainly some truth to what you're saying, I think you're overstating the case. For instance, you say:

True, the Rays reached the World Series in 2008, losing to the Phillies, but that was an anomoly. This year? They finished just 6 games over .500. They'll tread similar waters for the next 20 years.

This is false, at least for the next, say, 5 years. The Rays have arguably the best minor league system in the game, and they are well-positioned to compete with the titans in the AL East in the short-term. There's no doubt that the former ownership of the team managed the franchise poorly, but the new guys are making much better decisions. Also, the Baltimore Orioles have some strong young pitching coming up, so Boston and the Yankees will have to continue to perform well to stay on top. The Rays were one of the top 10 teams in baseball this year, they just happen to play in the strongest division.

Mike Kole said...

The Rays may well have a great farm system, but my bet is that by time they become bona fide star players, they will reach the ends of their contracts, and as management faces the prospect of signing high-dollar deals, they will try to trade the players for prospects, thereby again stocking the minor league teams in this vicious cycle, or simple letting the player go to free agency.

The Rays are the anomoly. The norm is Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, Minnesota, San Diego, Oakland.

Rays management will have to make flawless decisions and get lucky besides if they are to make the playoffs again in the next five years, in my opinion. Baseball is one of those sports that can be dominated by two ace pitchers and a closer, plus above-average hitting. The Rays don't have the two aces. Look at the teams in the WS. They do.

Todd S. said...

Baseball is one of those sports that can be dominated by two ace pitchers and a closer, plus above-average hitting. The Rays don't have the two aces. Look at the teams in the WS. They do.

Who were the two aces the Rays had last year when they made it to the WS? Who was their closer? Who is the second ace on the Phillies this year? Who is the Phillies closer? Who is the second ace on this year's Yankees staff?

I'm sorry, but baseball is too complex to be distilled down to such a simple formula. The Rays won last year because their defense took a gigantic leap forward with the move of B.J. Upton to CF and the insertion of Jason Bartlett at SS. The addition of 3B Evan Longoria, a young star that the Rays have already locked up with a big contract for multiple years, helped both the offense and defense.

As for this year's teams, the Phillies have an excellent offense but question marks in the rotation after Cliff Lee. Their bullpen has been a liability all year and their supposed "closer" spent much of the year with his ERA near 7.00. The Yankees do indeed have the best relief pitcher of all time but their rotation has questions after Sabathia. Unless you count A.J. Burnett, who had a great start last night but also owns the worst start of the Yankees post-season.

Mike Kole said...

Well, like so many generalizations, this doesn't hold up entirely to close scrutiny.

I think especially of the Diamondbacks' big year. Signed Johnson & Shilling, and voila! I think of the Brewers push last year, signing Sabathia to join Sheets. Sure, it didn't work out, but it sure looked like they were following a particular form.